Overview
Executive summary, headline findings, system architecture. Start here.
→ Read the executive summary
JB VPP Research
Where the data center boom meets the BTM electron — and the bankable line.
Bottom-line commercial finding · 2026-05-08
PV-only NPV
+82.7 M RM
60 MW PV at a 100 MW DC anchor
PV-only IRR
13.0%
8-year simple payback · bankable today
BESS gap
−349 M RM
Structurally negative until capex ≤ 2.0 M RM/MWh
Carbon stack
+211 M RM
Hyperscaler internal carbon at USD 100/tCO₂
What this research is
Section titled “What this research is”This site documents a multi-month engineering effort to build a quantitatively defensible view on whether PV + BESS + cross-border export make commercial sense for the wave of hyperscaler data centers landing in the Johor Bahru / JS-SEZ corridor.
The work spans the full pipeline — public weather and macroeconomic data ingestion, load synthesis, LP-optimised BTM dispatch, and eleven layered commercial models covering aggregator portfolios, BESS investment-trigger curves, hyperscaler PPA term-sheets, ENEGEM cross-border export structural revenue, and risk-adjusted NPV under correlated shocks.
Every headline number on this page is reproducible from uv run jb-vpp model run-all
and pinned by a drift checker that fails CI when reports diverge from the underlying JSON.
Why it matters
Section titled “Why it matters”Headline finding
PV is bankable today, BESS waits for 2028+
60 MW PV at a 100 MW DC anchor clears +82.7 M NPV / 13% IRR with current TNB ETOU and ICPT 16 sen — no exotic revenue stacking required. BESS only flips with BNEF capex curve at ≤ 2.0 M RM/MWh.
Strategic re-rating
Carbon attribute > kWh value
At hyperscaler internal carbon (USD 100/tCO₂), the carbon stack is worth +211 M NPV — 2.5× the BTM avoided cost. The deal is sold on certified clean MWh, not on energy.
Single biggest lever
61 MW of ENEGEM allocation closes the BESS gap
Structural estimate at base USEP 120 SGD/MWh, 25% capacity factor, 20-year horizon. Securing cross-border allocation deserves explicit commercial workstream ownership.
Realistic timing
Phasing improves NPV by +371 M (+17%)
10-site portfolio cashflow with site-by-site commissioning. Late capex gets discounted; the BESS structural gap doesn’t go away — it just looks 17% smaller than the instant-deployment model says.
Deal structure
Energy near-zero in carbon-anchored PPAs
With hyperscaler-bundled carbon at RM 290/MWh, developer breaks even at just RM 8.5/MWh in energy tariff. The PPA sells certified-clean MWh attributes, not kWh.
Risk-adjusted view
P(NPV < 0) under correlated shocks: 66%
Monte Carlo on six correlated risk drivers (ICPT, BESS capex, hyperscaler ramp, etc.). PV-alone is robust; PV + BESS is risk-on at current capex.
What’s the structure
Section titled “What’s the structure”Commercial models
Eleven LP- and analytically-derived models across BTM, aggregator, PPA pricing, term-sheets, ENEGEM, carbon, 24/7 CFE, BESS triggers, and risk.
→ Browse all reports
Methodology
Public-data ingestion stack, load synthesizer math, LP horizon validation, drift checker.
→ Methodology overview
Reproducibility
uv run jb-vpp model run-all regenerates every number on this site in ~30 seconds. 292 tests, 0.7s suite. Drift checker on 18 cited claims.
A note on private data
Section titled “A note on private data”Real anchor-site identification (the dc_tracker/ directory in the repository) is private
and never surfaced on this site or in any report figure. All site-level analysis uses a
stylised composite portfolio — site sizes inspired by public Sedenak / AirTrunk / YTL
Green DC announcements, but not identifying real operators. See Methodology · Data sources
for the full provenance model.